I don’t know about you, but I have more than a little bit of frustration with those on-air personalities – those analysts and pollsters and pundits – who make predictions and give us assurances about numbers and outcomes before the count is in. Yes, I’m talking about the seemingly interminable election results that only now just resolved. But this frustration could just as easily apply to the industries I’ve worked in (and probably yours too.)
Here’s an example. For over a dozen years, I worked in Higher Ed as a chief communications and marketing officer. My teams worked side-by-side with those in Enrollment, Admissions, and Financial Aid, which is by and large, a numbers game. Market research analysts are often hired to help us zero in on where we should be looking for that perfect elusive student to fill our rosters. They traffic in knowing the demographics, data-driven solutions, and predictive modeling in a way the rest of us marketing folk don’t. But we need that big data to inform everything we create and promote. It’s a synergistic relationship.
The universities I worked at in my career both had high populations of international students. Market researchers were brought in to analyze and model admission and financial aid data in an effort to recommend ways of optimizing each university’s allocation of need- and merit-based aid. They measured the ups and downs of enrollment in specific disciplines on multiple campus locations and coupled that with the complexity of what was going on in the greater economy. They looked at the demographics of college-age students in the area. They polled our constituents—current and potential students and their parents. And they used social media to gather minute data on user behavior and understood that these bits of data, when modeled, can shape future behavior.
Based on these models, suggestions for actions to take were made. New messaging and marketing were created by folks on my team. Predictions of success followed. Everyone felt good about where we were to go.
And then, at each place I worked, the world turned upside down.
When I was at The New School, the economy went into free fall. The Great Recession of 2008-09 lasted for a good eighteen months. Families started wondering about the ROI on higher education and whether it was worth it at all.
When I was at the New York Institute of Technology, new U.S. anti-immigration policies limited visas on international students. So, college-bound students from China, India and numerous Middle Eastern countries chose not to go (or were forbidden to go) where they were no longer welcome.
In both cases, those smart predictive models broke down. Student recruitment efforts had to adapt—as they had to at most colleges and universities. And with each setback, universities fought back and rallied. New predictions and plans followed.
Then Covid hit.
Schools with high campus residential populations and mostly on campus learning are now straining. Another model shattered.
Enrollment managers are expected to use existing data in the development of their predictive models, but the randomness of unanticipated drivers—such as global political upheaval, population migrations, biological phenomena (like the coronavirus) and environmental events (like an earthquake)—can never be knowingly added to the analytic mix up front. For those institutions that are tuition-dependent and/or operate on the edge of fiscal viability, the consequences could be significant.
So I’m not a huge fan of predictions. As stated above, any number of things can throw them off. Does it mean you shouldn’t do them? No. You need to get to know where and to whom to direct your focus in your marketing. It just means that there are always surprises around the corner and you may have to pivot at any moment.
With that said, here’s my prediction about the future of higher ed. And it’s no surprise to anyone.
Everything about it is going to change. The way they teach. The way they operate. The way students interact. Those colleges and universities that can be most agile, and innovate, collaborate, and be open to utilizing outside agency to alleviate some of the technical strains their campuses may now endure will be the ones that thrive.
If I may quote my wise former colleague from NYIT, Ron Maggiore, “Darwinism has come to the higher education realm.”